Weekend Box Office Predictions: 10/12/12

Following a weekend off, The Muffin Man returns and it seems as if I picked a good weekend, as we get five new wide releases this weekend, three of which have good reviews, and two of those even have great reviews. Plus, there’s the second weekend of Taken 2, so the strong October box office looks to continue. I suppose this is our reward for enduring that awful September.

Taken 2

Despite what it is sure to be a big drop, Taken 2 still has a great shot at repeating, mostly on the strength of its gargantuan 49 million opening. The reception, among critics and fans alike, has not been nearly as kind to the sequel, so I’m expecting a pretty huge fall. There was a lot of pent up demand as well, so I’m expecting the Liam Neeson film to fall around 60% to the tune of about 20 million.

What makes this weekend so very fun is just how unpredictable it’s going to be. It’d be easy for one of the new openers to break out or for Taken 2 to fall especially hard, so the door is really wide open. Nonetheless, I think the runner up spot will be occupied by another holdover, Hotel Transylvania. Its hold last weekend indicates the Adam Sandler flick has decent word of mouth, and with not direct competition opening this weekend, it should make about 18 million.

In third, we should have Argo. It’s easily the cream of the crop this weekend, as its stellar 94% at Rotten Tomatoes indicates. Ben Affleck has had one of the most incredible career resurrections in history as he continues to prove his worth as a director. Argo should open to around 17 million.

I’m thinking it might be a real battle between Sinister and Here Comes the Boom for the next spot. Kevin James, though he continues to put out terrible movies, is pretty reliable. And, well, it’s October, so any horror film is liable to get a small boost. Shockingly, Sinister is actually fresh at 61%, well above Here Comes the Boom’s 46%. Then again, reviews hardly matter to horror fans. Nonetheless, with Halloween approaching, I’ll give Sinister the benefit of the doubt. Give it 15 million with Here Comes the Boom right behind at 14 million.

Now we get to some holders. Sixth will likely go to Pitch Perfect. It seems like the rush has died down a bit so I think it will slip to about 9 million. That will be followed by Looper pulling in around 8 million. Frankenweenie disappointed in its opening, so it doesn’t have much further down to go and might hold decently. I’ll say 7 million for the Tim Burton flick.

In ninth, I’m figuring Seven Psychopaths should open to about six million. Its only being released into about 1500 theatres, plus the subject matter seems a bit “out there” for the average moviegoer. That leaves us with spot number ten, which could be filled by many different films. Atlas Shrugged: Part II, The Perks of Being a Wallflower and End of Watch all have legitimate shots. Fans of Wallflower seem fairly passionate, so I’ll toss the spot their way. The Emma Watson flick should make about 2.2 million, good for tenth place.

1. Taken 2: 20 million

2. Hotel Transylvania: 18 million

3. Argo: 17 million

4. Sinister: 15 million

5. Here Comes the Boom: 14 million

6. Pitch Perfect: 9 million

7. Looper: 8 million

8. Frankenweenie 7 million

9. 7 Psychopaths: 6 million

10. The Perks of Being a Wallflower: 2.2 million

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