Weekend Box Office Predictions: 9/14/12

After by far the worst weekend in recent memory, the box office should rebound dramatically, with two films looking to debut over 20 million. The box office crown held for two weeks by The Possession is now up for grabs. Both new openers have a legitimate shot at claiming the number one spot. Though it will be a tight race, I think number one will go to…

Finding Nemo (3D)

Given how successful the 3D re-release of The Lion King was over this same weekend last year, it’s no surprise Disney decided to bring back one of their other most popular films.I don’t think Finding Nemo will quite reach the same heights as Simba and company, but an opening around 25 million seems about right.

Standing a decent chance of making an upset bit for the top spot is Resident Evil: Retribution, the fifth in the popular series. The infusion of 3D has injected a bit more life into the series, but I can’t help but wonder how long these films can possibly sustain themselves. I don’t understand why the advertising isn’t focusing more on the fact that Leon Kennedy, one of the most badass and popular characters from the games, is making his cinematic debut in this film. Oh well. Retribution will probably end up around the last few entries in the series with about 22 million.

That leaves us the glut of holdovers, none of which are particularly notable. After a two week reign, The Possession should fall to third and make about 5 million. Lawless will likely come in fourth, grossing around 3.8 million. Rounding out the top five will be The Expendables, which I’m thinking will gross around 3 million.

Next should be ParaNorman pulling in around 2.6 million. I see no reason why The Words won’t fall hard in its second weekend, other than the simple fact its debut was so bad that it’s hard to sink any lower. That said, it’ll probably get halved and make about 2.3 million. The Bourne Legacy will probably finish in eight place and gross about 2.3 as well. Right behind the 2.3 million grossers should be The Odd Life of Timothy Green, whose good legs will enable to make around 2.1 million.

In tenth, that likely leaves The Campaign, though it’s not unthinkable 2016 Obama’s America or The Dark Knight Rises could beat it out for the tenth spot. Nonetheless, I think these three films will finish next to each other and all make roughly the same amount, just like they did last weekend.

1. Finding Nemo 3-D: 25 million

2. Resident Evil Retribution: 22 million

3. The Possession: 5 million

4. Lawless: 3.8 million

5. The Expendables 2: 3 million

6. ParaNorman: 2.6 million

7. The Words: 2.3 million

8. The Bourne Legacy: 2.3 million

9. The Odd Life of Timothy Green: 2.2 million

10. The Campaign: 2.1 million

11. The Dark Knight Rises: 2 million

12. 2016 Obama’s America: 1.9 million

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