Weekend Box Office Predictions: 9/7/12


Can another successful movie open soon? I’m really getting tired of this poster.

We could be looking at an historically awful weekend. With only two new openers, neither of which look poised to break out, along with a weak slate of holdovers, this could well be the lowest grossing weekend in several years. By sheer proxy, The Possession figures to hold on to the lead, which is all kinds of sad. It should probably drop around 60% down to about 7 million, though I wouldn’t be surprised to see it collapse in excess of 70% and leave the door open for another film to take the top spot.

Public awareness of The Words seems decent, but adult-skewing films like this need good reviews and the Bradley Cooper vehicle failed spectacularly on that front (an abysmal 18% at Rotten Tomatoes). Cooper does have some draw, but even still I’m only predicting about 6 million for this one. Lawless, as a decently well received film, should hold far better than the Possession but it’s still coming off a holiday and should get roughly cut in half. Give it five million.

The Expendables 2 and The Bourne Legacy, stablemates for a while now, should take spots four and five. I’ll say 4.5 and 3.8, respectively. Sixth place will likely go to ParaNorman, which should make about 3.6 million. Next will be The Odd Life of Timothy Green, which might hold better than most other films, pulling in around 3.5 million. The Dark Knight Rises is nearing the end of its box office life now so I’ll say about 3 million.

Finally, we get to the other release of the weekend, the ambiguously titled The Cold Light of Day. I think this has all the makings of a pretty epic failure, so let’s give it 2.6 million for the weekend. The Campaign should make a similar amount, about 2.5 million.

Despite opening in only 267 theatres, a special IMAX release of Raiders of the Lost Ark has the ability to capitalize on the weak box office and crack the top ten. The limited theatre gives it an air of exclusivity, plus fans might be eager to see a not terrible Indiana Jones movie on the book screen (here’s looking at you, Kingdom of the Crystal Skull). I think it’ll make about 2.5 and challenge for a top ten spot.

Now that the Republican Convention is over and the resultant right wing fever is dying down (and [intelligent] people are starting to realize that Paul Ryan is an unrepentant, pathological liar), 2016 Obama America’s should crash down to about 2.3 million and be forgotten soon enough.

1. The Possession: 7 million

2. The Words: 6 million

3. Lawless: 5 million

4. The Expendables 2: 4.5 million

5. The Bourne Legacy: 3.8 million

6. ParaNorman: 3.6 million

7. The Odd Life of Timothy Green: 3.5 million

8. The Dark Knight Rises: 3 million

9. The Cold Light of Day: 2.6 million

10. The Campaign: 2.5 million

11. Raiders of the Lost Ark: 2.5 million

12. 2016 Obama’s America: 2.3 million

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